Welcome to PAP/RAC Mediterranean Coastal Alert! This newsletter is regularly updated monthly. It contains abstracts of selected current articles and archives on various environmental themes, in particular those dealing with all aspects of coastal issues. The selection is made from the articles published in the leading international scientific journals. This newsletter is an excellent way of keeping you updated with coastal studies and processes.

In this issue Issue No. 69, 2014-07-01

Present contributions to sea level rise by thermal expansion and ice melting and implication on coastal management
(Abstract...)

Monitoring campaign as ICM tools for Tokyo Bay
(Abstract...)

Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa
(Abstract...)

Integrated landscape management for agriculture, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation: An assessment of experience from Latin America and the Caribbean
(Abstract...)

Abstract

Present contributions to sea level rise by thermal expansion and ice melting and implication on coastal management

Increasing ocean heat content has been suggested on the basis of theories. Reconstructions (modelling results based on selected scattered measurements) and simulations (modelling results not based on observations) have both shown a significant warming since the year 1970 that increased at an ever faster rate over the 14 years this century. It is shown here that, contrary to this claim, the detailed measurements of the ocean temperature and salinity by the sampling buoys of the ARGO project show only minor changes of temperature and salinity since the early 2000s. The ARGO results cover the ocean layers 0–2000 m except for the North and South Poles. The satellite NSSTC surface air temperature measurements over the world oceans show a global cooling over the last 11 years, and the satellite NSDIC sea ice extent measurements show globally increasing ice coverage over the North and South Poles. The North Pole sea ice is certainly reducing, but over the last 11 years the growth of the South Pole sea ice has more than compensated that loss. The true measurements are in marked contrast to theoretical reconstructions and simulations. This result has a huge implication on coastal management that should be based on observationally derived forecasts rather than “projections” of models lacking validation.

Keywords: Sea level rise; Thermal expansion; Ice melting; Coastal management; ARGO project.

Source: A. Parker (2014); “Present contributions to sea level rise by thermal expansion and ice melting and implication on coastal management”, Ocean & Coastal Management, In Press, Corrected Proof; Available Online: 24 June 2014; DOI of Original Article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.05.027

Contact: albert.parker@rmit.edu.au

Link: ScienceDirect

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Monitoring campaign as ICM tools for Tokyo Bay

On 26 March 2003, the Tokyo Bay Renaissance Promotion Council, composed of six central government agencies and eight regional government bodies endorsed an “Action Plan for Tokyo Bay Renaissance”. Under the action plan, the monitoring campaign of bay environment has been started in 2008. Dissolved oxygen (DO), salinity, and temperature were monitored in sea area, chemical oxygen demand, temperature, and discharge were monitored in river area. These data sets show a detailed snap shot of hypoxic water occurrence in the inner part of the bay. A series of environment maps for Tokyo Bay have been published for sharing the data. For example, in 2012, goby census has been implemented to show importance of biological – environmental relations. Participants of the census are 240, and the more than 8,000 data of fished gobies has been corrected. It clearly shows relation between growth and special environment variation. From just few trial of the campaigns are not enough to answer all questions, nevertheless, these trials shows its importance and efficiency on bay environment monitoring and management as one of the ICM tools.

Keywords: Monitoring; ICM tools; Tokyo Bay; Action plan.

Source: K. Furukawa (2014); “Monitoring campaign as ICM tools for Tokyo Bay”, Journal of Coastal Conservation, June 2014, Volume 18, Issue 3, pp 273-277.

Contact: furukawa-k92y2@ysk.nilim.go.jp

Link: Journal of Coastal Conservation

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Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa

Given its high dependence on rainfed agriculture and its comparatively low adaptive capacity, Africa is frequently invoked as especially vulnerable to climate change. Within Africa, there is likely to be considerable variation in vulnerability to climate change both between and within countries. This paper seeks to advance the agenda of identifying the hot spots of what we term “climate security” vulnerability, areas where the confluence of vulnerabilities could put large numbers of people at risk of death from climate-related hazards. This article blends the expertise of social scientists and climate scientists. It builds on a model of composite vulnerability that incorporates four “baskets” or processes that are thought to contribute to vulnerability including: (1) physical exposure, (2) population density, (3) household and community resilience, and (4) governance and political violence. Whereas previous iterations of the model relied on historical physical exposure data of natural hazards, this paper uses results from regional model simulations of African climate in the late 20th century and mid-21st century to develop measures of extreme weather events - dry days, heat wave events, and heavy rainfall days - coupled with an indicator of low-lying coastal elevation. For the late 20th century, this mapping process reveals the most vulnerable areas are concentrated in Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Niger, Somalia, Sudan, and South Sudan, with pockets in Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mauritania, and Sierra Leone. The mid 21st century projection shows more extensive vulnerability throughout the Sahel, including Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, northern Nigeria, Niger, and across Sudan.

Keywords: Hot spots; Vulnerability; Climate security; Africa.

Source: J.W. Busby, K.H. Cook, E.K. Vizy, T.G. Smith and M. Bekalo (2014); “Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa“, Climatic Change, June 2014, Volume 124, Issue 4, pp 717-731.

Contact: busbyj@mail.utexas.edu

Link: Climate Change Journal

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Integrated landscape management for agriculture, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation: An assessment of experience from Latin America and the Caribbean

Approaches to integrated landscape management are currently garnering new interest as scientists, policymakers, and local stakeholders recognize the need to increase the multi-functionality of agricultural landscapes for food production, livelihood improvement, and ecosystem conservation. Such approaches have been attempted in many parts of Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) but to date there has been no systematic assessment of their characteristics, outcomes, and limitations. To fill this gap, we surveyed participants and managers in integrated landscape initiatives throughout the LAC region to characterize these initiatives’ contexts, motivations and objectives, stakeholders and participants, activities and investments, outcomes, and major successes and shortcomings. Results from 104 initiatives in 21 countries indicate that integrated landscape management is being applied across the region to address a variety of challenges in diverse contexts, and that use of this approach is expanding. Initiatives reported investing across four key “domains” of landscape multi-functionality: agricultural production, ecosystem conservation, human livelihoods, and institutional planning and coordination. Initiatives reported positive outcomes across all four domains, but particularly with respect to institutional planning and co-ordination. Initiatives with larger numbers of objectives, investments, and participating stakeholder groups all reported significantly higher numbers of positive outcomes, suggesting significant value in the core precepts of the integrated landscape management approach. Key challenges identified by survey respondents - including the long time horizon required to achieve results at scale, unsupportive policy frameworks, and difficulty in engaging the private sector and other important stakeholders - offer insights for improving the future effectiveness of integrated landscape initiatives.

Keywords: Latin America; Landscape planning; Multifunctional; Agriculture; Rural development; Biodiversity.

Source: N. Estrada-Carmona, A.K. Hart, F.A.J. DeClerck, C.A. Harvey and J.C. Milder (2014); “Integrated landscape management for agriculture, rural livelihoods, and ecosystem conservation: An assessment of experience from Latin America and the Caribbean”, Landscape and Urban Planning, Volume 129, September 2014, Pages 1 - 11; DOI: 10.1016/j.landurbplan.2014.05.001

Contact: jcm85@cornell.edu

Link: ScienceDirect

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